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July 2010

Speculative Flow Reverses — The Local Currency Collapses

Theory The tension between speculative inflows and fundamental outflows continues to increase, causing violent price swings, until such point as those inflows are not sufficient to offset the rising tide of outflows. Like an inventory overhang that seems to appear out of nowhere in the wake of over-investment, the result is a supply–demand imbalance in [...]

Speculators Join the Crowd — The Local Currency Continues to Rally [practice]

From October 2000 through March 2001, Polish bonds roared higher, benefiting from cuts in official policy interest rates in response to clear signs of slowing economic activity within the Polish economy. The dollar–Polish zloty exchange rate, which at one time had been as high as 4.75 extended its downward trend, at one point breaking through [...]